Modelling Deaths Associated with Road Traffic Accidents and other Factors on Great North Road in Zambia between the Years 2010 and 2016 Using Poisson Models



Ronald Fisa1, Chola Nakazwe2, Charles Michelo1, Patrick Musonda1, 3, *
1 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
2 Demography Section, Central Statistical Office, Lusaka, Zambia
3 Centre for Intervention Science in Maternal and Child health (CISMAC), Centre for International Health (CIH), University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway

Abstract

Background:

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 1.24 million people die annually on the world’s roads, with 20–50 million sustaining non-fatal injuries. More than 85% (1.05 million) of the global deaths due to injuries occurring in the developing world. Road traffic deaths and injuries are a major but neglected public health challenge that requires concerted efforts for effective and sustainable prevention. The objectives of the study were to estimate the incidence rate of death from RTAs, to determine factors associated with serious and fatal Road Traffic Accidents (RTAs) and to determine which of the poisson models fit the count data better.

Methods:

Data was collected from Zambia Police (ZP), Traffic Division on accidents that occurred on the Great North Road (GNR) highway between Lusaka and Kapiri-Mposhi in Zambia from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2016. Results from standard Poisson regression were compared to those obtained using the Negative Binomial (NB), Zero-Truncated Negative Binomial (ZTNB) and the Zero-Truncated Poisson (ZTP) regression models. Diagnostic tests were used to determine the best fit model. The data was analysed using STATA software, version 14.0 SE (Stata Corporation, College Station, TX, USA).

Results:

A total of 1, 023 RTAs were analysed in which 1, 212 people died. Of these deaths, 82 (7%) were Juveniles and 1, 130 (93%) were adults. Cause of accident such as pedestrians crossing the road accounted for 30% (310/1,023) while 29% (295/1,023) were as a result of driver’s excessive speed. The study revealed that driving in the early hours of the day (1AM-6AM) as compared to driving in the night (7PM-12AM) had a significant increase in the incidence rate of death from RTAs, Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) of 2.1, (95% CI={1.01-4.41}), p-value=0.048. Results further showed that public transport as compared to private transport had an increased incidence rate of death from RTAs (IRR=5.65, 95% CI={2.97-10.73}), p-value<0.0001. The two competing models were the ZTP and the ZTNB. The ZTP had AIC=1304.55, BIC= 1336.55, whereas the ZTNB had AIC=742.25 and BIC=819.69. This indicated that the ZTNB with smaller AIC and BIC was the best fit model for the data.

Conclusions:

There is a reduced incidence of dying if one is using a private vehicle as compared to a public vehicle. Driving in the early hours of the day (1AM and 6AM) had an increased incidence of death from RTAs. This study suggests that when dealing with counts in which there are a few zeros observed such as in serious and fatal RTAs, ZTNB fits the data well as compared to other models.

Keywords: Road Traffic Accidents, Poisson, Zero truncated poisson, Negative binomial, Zero truncated negative binomial, Number of deaths.


Abstract Information


Identifiers and Pagination:

Year: 2019
Volume: 12
Publisher Item Identifier: EA-TOPHJ-2018-94

Article History:

Received Date: 30/10/2018
Revision Received Date: 08/02/2019
Acceptance Date: 11/02/2019
Electronic publication date: 20/02/2019
Collection year: 2019

© 2019 Fisa et al.

open-access license: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0), a copy of which is available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode. This license permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.


Correspondence: Address correspondence to this author at the Centre for Intervention Science in Maternal and Child health (CISMAC), Centre for International Health (CIH), University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway; Tel: +260 963 256 318; Fax: +260-1-250753; E-mail: pmuzho@hotmail.com