Future Study of Factors Affecting Economic Poverty in Iran 2043: A Threat to Health

Economic poverty is a fundamental challenge in many countries, significantly impacting human societies. Identifying and analyzing the numerous factors contributing to poverty is a practical approach to reducing its burden. Policymakers, equipped with knowledge of potential future scenarios, can formulate effective strategies and policies for various contingencies. This study uses a scenario-based planning approach to explore the factors influencing economic poverty in Iran by 2043.

The study was conducted in two phases. Phase one involved a comprehensive review to identify factors contributing to poverty. Phase two focused on determining key driving factors and forces, followed by the formulation of compatible scenarios through the analysis of mutual interactions and potential states of these factors. Data analysis and scenario creation were facilitated using MICMAC and Scenario Wizard software.

In the first phase, 35 factors contributing to economic poverty were identified and categorized into micro-level (15 factors) and macro-level (20 factors). In the second phase, experts identified 11 key driving factors. Additionally, by analyzing the balanced mutual effects and employing MICMAC and Scenario Wizard software, six compatible scenarios were developed. These scenarios ranged from unfavorable trends exacerbating poverty to maintaining the status quo and favorable trends under existing sanctions.

According to the scenarios of the first group with a high probability of occurrence, nine factors (mismanagement, sanctions, conflict and war, low level or lack of education, accidents, and natural disasters, lack of jobs and sources of income, financial corruption, lack of growth and economic development and lack of support from the government and supporting institutions) of the 11 final factors affecting poverty in Iran 2043 will have an unfavorable situation. Therefore, poverty alleviation planning and policy-making to cover the existing deficiencies are suggested by focusing on these nine factors.