Future Study of Factors Affecting Economic Poverty in Iran 2043: A Threat to Health

1. INTRODUCTION

Economic poverty occurs when an individual lacks sufficient income to meet basic needs. This phenomenon poses a significant threat to societal structures and organizations, playing a central role in numerous social and economic challenges. These include weakened social institutions, hunger and malnutrition, inadequate hygiene, social deprivation, poor quality of life, exclusion from development programs, isolation, and the necessity of engaging in undesirable work due to limited choices [1-5].

The causes of poverty extend beyond economic factors to encompass social and demographic aspects, such as education and training, access to healthcare, health status, living standards, lifestyle, age, and gender [6, 7]. Economists typically focus on evaluating economic determinants, whereas sociologists emphasize socio-cultural factors, analyzing poverty at various levels-micro, meso, and macro [8]. Among the many factors that cause poverty, inequality, and discrimination (racial, minority, ethnic, gender, class system, etc.), lack or low level of education, insufficient, limited, or poor access to health care, unfavorable health status and the high cost of treating diseases, conflict and war, climate change, poor governance and lack of government support, unemployment and lack of suitable jobs can be mentioned [9-11]. Despite the many efforts of governments and international communities, poverty still exists worldwide, especially in developing and underdeveloped countries [12]. According to the report of the International Labor Organization, this phenomenon is considered a threat to the 2030 vision of this organization, i.e., a just world in which the needs of the most vulnerable people are met and a world in which every country enjoys sustainable and inclusive economic growth for all [13]. According to the World Bank report, for almost 25 years, extreme poverty has continuously decreased, so in 2015, there were about 734 million people in extreme poverty in the world, which decreased to about 644 million people in 2019 [14]. However, this trend of reducing extreme poverty changed in 2020 for the first time. It started an increasing trend that reached about 733 million people, which is expected to continue in the coming years [14]. The World Bank report indicates that in Iran in 2011, nearly 20% of the Iranian population was below the poverty line, even though in 2021, more than 28.1% of Iran's population will be below the poverty line [15]. Also, the Islamic Republic of Iran Majlis Research Center reports have shown the increase and deepening of poverty in Iran in the 2010s. According to this report, the poverty rate, i.e., the percentage of the population below the absolute poverty line in the country in 2021, was equal to 30.4%. Moreover, the poverty rate has been increasing since 2006 (with 15%) and has reached over 30% since 2008 [16]. Iran's trends and economic developments have increased pressure on low-income households and poverty [17].

A thorough understanding of the nature of poverty is essential for policymakers to develop practical and integrated strategies to mitigate its extent and consequences [18]. Since the problem of poverty and poverty alleviation programs is always the concern of policymakers, knowing and investigating this phenomenon as much as possible is an undeniable necessity for the success of such programs and solving the critical problem. In this regard, what is important is that countries can use the most appropriate strategies to identify these factors in any situation; in this situation, if the policymakers are aware of the state of different futures (including probable future, possible future, and preferred future) in this regard, have, they can plan the desired policies and strategies for every possible future.

A thorough understanding of the nature of poverty is essential for policymakers to develop practical and integrated strategies to mitigate its extent and consequences. Since addressing poverty and implementing effective poverty alleviation programs are constant priorities for policymakers, a comprehensive investigation of this phenomenon is a fundamental prerequisite for the success of such initiatives. To this end, countries must adopt appropriate strategies to identify relevant factors in various contexts. By gaining awareness of different future scenarios—including probable, possible, and preferred futures—policymakers can design targeted policies and strategies to address potential challenges. Future study approaches can help respond to this need [19]. Future study is an approach that includes understanding possible futures and preparing to make decisions for the future [20]. Future study starts with identifying different future options, examining these options, considering their probability of occurrence, and considering them in terms of desirability [20].

There are different methods for future study, and the choice of each method depends on factors such as time, information sources, available financial resources, and the goals of future study implementation. These methods include the Delphi method, scenario creation method, environmental survey method, brainstorming method, patent analysis method, dependency tree method, morphological analysis method, interaction analysis method, and future cycle method (mind map) [21].

The current research used mutual effects analysis and scenario building for future studies on factors affecting poverty. The analysis of mutual effects identifies the most influential factors in explaining a phenomenon. For this purpose, in addition to the direct impact of each factor on the phenomenon, it also calculates and considers the indirect effects of that factor, that is, the effects of that factor through intermediary factors [22]. In other words, one of the primary limitations of many forecasting methods is that the factors are forecasted individually. There is no apparent reference to their possible influence on each other, while they are often related to each other in some way. Most analysts emphasize that the probability of each event is partially conditioned by the occurrence of different events [21]. The dependence between these factors can be considered for prediction, and the analysis of the mutual effects of these relationships between variables is considered in the analysis [22].

On the other hand, scenarios help managers to know what possible futures exist. How are these futures created? And why does each future occur [23]. In the planning method based on scenarios or scenario writing, scenarios are formulated or used differently [23]. Scenario writing processes include two main parts: on the one hand, the preparation of scenarios, and on the other hand, the use of scenarios in planning processes considered in scenario writing [24]. In each scenario, a combination of different states of each factor plays a role, extracted using scientific methods of the most probable scenarios [25].

The primary objective of this research was to identify the factors influencing economic poverty in Iran and analyze them using the mutual effects analysis technique. Key driving factors were determined, and various scenarios were developed to explore potential futures for economic poverty in Iran by 2043.

2. METHODS

This exploratory study was conducted cross-sectionally, with practical objectives divided into two distinct phases.

The first phase: The study's first phase included conducting a comprehensive review to identify factors affecting poverty.

In this phase, a comprehensive review was used in the English-language Web of Science (ISI), PubMed, and Scopus databases to identify factors affecting poverty. In this comprehensive review, according to the research question (what are the factors affecting poverty?), English keywords were used according to Table 1.

Furthermore, to increase the sensitivity of the search and, in other words, to increase the percentage of discovery and selection of related articles, the researcher examined several databases and searched with relatively common words, and synonymous words were used in the search along with the OR operator.

In addition, synonyms were also used in the search with the AND operator to increase the specificity, that is, to reduce the selection of unrelated articles. The search strategy of the studies is given in Table 2.

3. RESULTS

Findings of the first phase: Results of a comprehensive review

In the search for studies, 3426 articles were found. In the next step, duplicate and unrelated cases (3084 studies) were excluded from the study after primary screening (review of titles), and 342 studies entered the secondary screening stage (review of abstracts of articles). The screening criterion at this stage was relevance and appropriateness to the subject under study, articles from 2000 onwards, and review articles. In this stage, two researchers separately examined the abstracts of the articles, and to increase the accuracy and quality of the study, two researchers reviewed the evaluation results at this stage during a meeting, and a third evaluation was also carried out to resolve the disputes. After the consensus at this stage, it was found that some of these articles are not valid criteria for investigating the factors affecting poverty and are related to the study's objectives; they are very old (articles before 2000) and are review articles. Thus, the number of studies was reduced to 59 articles. In the search for the full text of the articles, we tried to contact the authors of those articles that were unavailable and get the complete text, and if they did not respond, they were excluded from the study. In this way, 59 studies with full text were identified. In the next step, after reviewing the sources of this number of studies, ten other related articles were extracted, and the number of articles reached 69. Then, the quality of the remaining 69 articles was examined. Thus, to measure the quality of the articles, each study was reviewed by at least two researchers separately, and for this purpose, the STROBE evaluation checklist was used. Based on this, only the articles that were done correctly based on the STROBE tool and scored seven and above were included in the study [27]. In addition, in cases of disagreement between two researchers, a third party was used to check the quality. At this stage, six articles were discarded due to poor quality and methodology, and the number of studies was reduced to 63. They were included in extracting the results according to their usefulness in the field under investigation (Fig. 1).

According to the purpose of the study and the reviewed studies, 35 factors affecting poverty were identified and categorized in two sections, including micro factors (15 factors) and macro factors (20 factors) (Table 3) [28-128]

3.1. Findings of the Second Phase

3.1.1. Results of interaction analysis:

To identify the key factors and the main driving factors according to the direct and indirect effects of each factor on other factors, a matrix of 35 x 35 factors affecting poverty was developed and analyzed using mutual effects analysis. Based on the results of the preliminary analysis show, the degree of saturation of the matrix is ​​50.61, which shows that the selected factors had a moderate and scattered effect on each other, and in fact, the system had a relatively stable situation.

Table 3.

Micro Factors	Macro Factors
Lack of health facilities and poor health conditions [28]	Sanction [80, 81]
Back-breaking health costs [29]	Inflation [42, 69, 82]
Low level or lack of education [30-37]	Conflict and war [43-48]
Lack of job and source of income [31, 34, 38-42] (Lack of job opportunities and unemployment)	Unequal distribution of material resources and wealth and discrimination and social inequality [31, 34, 45-54, 81]
Increasing age [31, 34, 54, 56, 57]	Weak healthcare system [128]
Ruralism [51, 62-64]	Geographical and environmental obstacles (such as drought, adverse weather changes, etc.) [44, 58-61, 58]
Gender (female), head of household [30, 31, 33, 34, 54]	Poor public services and inadequate infrastructure [31, 55, 65]
Possession of capital assets and limited material capital (such as lack of housing, etc.) [32, 39]	Lack of national reserves [30, 55]
The degree of independence of family members and the dependency burden [31, 33, 34]	Lack of support from the government and supporting institutions [30, 54, 65-68]
Unhealthy lifestyle [70]	Lack of economic growth and development [30, 38, 50, 69, 78]
Illness and lack of complete health [33-35, 67, 72-74]	Lack of coverage of social security and support systems such as insurance [67, 71]
Living in deprived and underprivileged areas [33, 58, 61, 64, 75, 76]	Mismanagement and inefficiency of managers and policy makers [30, 71]
Lack or low level of work motivation [8, 41, 48, 77]	Lack of proper planning of service provision and product production [30, 71]
Individual factors such as lack or low level of self-confidence, job skills, familiarity with the market, etc [38, 41, 52, 83].	Failure to use the young and productive forces of society [30, 54, 71]
Large household size (dimensions) [83, 84]	Lack of specific policies for employment [30]
-	Lack of independence and dependence on countries [30, 71]
-	political, economic, and social instability [30, 54, 71, 78]
-	Accidents, incidents and disasters [79]
-	Population growth (without a plan) [85, 86]
-	Financial corruption [87-89]

3.1.2. System Analysis: Evaluating the Influence and Impressionability of Factors

In the mutual influence matrix, the sum of the numbers of each row shows the influence of that factor, and the sum of the column numbers of each factor also shows its influence. Table 4 shows the total row and column scores for each factor.

Based on the analytical results of this matrix, the most influential factors include mismanagement and inefficiency of managers and policymakers, sanctions, conflict and war, and low levels of education. Also, the most influential factors are considered, such as lack of economic growth and development, back-breaking health costs, illness and lack of perfect health, lack of health facilities, and poor health conditions.

(Fig. 2 corresponds to the matrix form of the research and is set based on the direct effects of factors on each other, where 28 factors are placed. These factors directly impacted at least one other factor; in this study, only seven impressionable factors are not shown in the influence Fig. 2

3.1.3. System Analysis: Determining the Role of each Factor

Based on the location of each factor in the dispersion map of the influence/ impressionability Figure, the role of that factor in the investigated system can be determined. Table 5 presents the classification of variables based on role.

Based on the findings presented in Table 5, the first category is the influential variables. These factors include mismanagement and inefficiency of managers and policymakers, sanctions, conflict and war, low level or lack of education, accidents, and natural disasters, lack of support from the government and supporting institutions, growth Population (without a plan), lack of specific policies for employment and lack of proper planning of service provision and product production are among the variables affecting poverty.

The second category is two-faceted variables. In this study, five variables out of 35 variables, including inflation, lack of job and source of income, unequal distribution of material resources and wealth, financial corruption, and lack of economic growth and development, are included in this group.

The third category is influencing variables or outcome variables. Nine variables are included in this category, which includes political, economic, and social instability, lack of health facilities and poor health status, illness and lack of perfect health, lack of social security and support system coverage, unhealthy lifestyle, possession of capital assets and limited material capital, back-breaking health costs, lack of or the low level of work motivation and weak public services and insufficient infrastructure.

The fourth category is independent variables. These factors include living in deprived and underprivileged areas, living in rural areas, the degree of independence of family members and the dependency burden, lack of

Table 4.

Row	Group	Factor Affecting Poverty	Total Score of the Row (Level of Influence)	Total Column Score (Level of Influence)
1	Micro factors	Lack of health facilities and poor health conditions	25	48
2		Back-breaking health costs	13	58
3		Low level or lack of education	36	22
4		Lack of job and source of income	33	44
5		The size (dimension) of the household	16	13
6		age increasing	21	10
7		village life	22	28
8		Gender (female) head of the household	14	7
9		Acquisition of capital assets and limited material capital	16	33
10		The degree of independence of family members and the dependency burden	22	15
11		Unhealthy lifestyle	17	32
12		Illness and lack of perfect health	24	48
13		Living in deprived and underprivileged areas	24	25
14		Lack or low level of work motivation	11	35
15		Individual factors include lack of self-confidence, low job skills, familiarity with the market, etc.	12	24
16	Macro factors	Sanction	43	1
17		Inflation	28	33
18		Conflict and war	41	7
19		Unequal distribution of material resources and wealth	30	47
20		Weak healthcare system	18	24
21		Geographical and environmental barriers	16	8
22		Poor public services and inadequate infrastructure	8	38
23		Lack of national reserves	20	15
24		Lack of support from the government and supporting institutions	30	14
25		Lack of economic growth and development	32	54
26		Lack of coverage of the social security and support system	22	32
27		Population growth (no plan)	30	4
28		financial corruption	33	32
29		Mismanagement and inefficiency of managers and policymakers	47	8
30		Lack of proper planning of service provision and product production	28	14
31		Failure to use the young and productive force of society	18	13
32		Lack of specific policies for employment	29	14
33		Lack of independence and dependence on countries	15	19
34		Political, economic, and social instability	26	33
35		Accidents and natural disasters	35	3

Table 5.

Variable Role Based on MICMAC Methodology	Factors Affecting Poverty	Variable Placement Specifications On the Scattering Page
		Total Score of the Row (Level of Influence)	Total Column Score (Level of Influence)
First Division: Influential variables	Mismanagement and inefficiency of managers and policymakers	47	8
	Sanction	43	1
	Conflict and war	41	7
	Low level or lack of education	36	23
	Accidents and natural disasters	35	3
	Lack of support from the government and supporting institutions	30	14
	Population growth (no plan)	30	4
	Lack of specific policies for employment	29	14
	Lack of proper planning of service provision and product production	28	14
The second category: Bivariate variables	Inflation	28	33
	Lack of job and source of income	33	44
	Unequal distribution of material resources and wealth	30	47
	financial corruption	33	32
	Lack of economic growth and development	32	54
The third category: Impressionable variables	Political, economic, and social instability	26	33
	Lack of health facilities and poor health conditions	25	48
	Illness and lack of perfect health	24	48
	Lack of coverage of the social security and support system	22	32
	Unhealthy lifestyle	17	32
	Acquisition of capital assets and limited material capital	16	33
	Back-breaking health costs	13	58
	Lack or low level of work motivation	11	35
	Poor public services and inadequate infrastructure	8	38
The fourth category: Independent variables	Living in deprived and underprivileged areas	24	35
	Village life	22	28
	The degree of independence of family members and the burden of support	22	15
	Lack of national reserves	20	15
	Failure to use the young and productive force of society	18	13
	Age increasing	21	10
	Weak healthcare system	18	24
	Geographical and environmental barriers	16	8
	Size (dimension) of the household	16	13
	Lack of independence and dependence on countries	15	19
	Gender (female) head of the household	17	7
	Individual factors	12	24

national reserves, lack of use of the young and productive workforce of the society, aging, weak health care system, geographical and environmental barriers, size (dimension)) the household, the lack of independence and dependence of the countries, the gender (female) of the head of the household and individual factors.

3.1.3. Direct and Indirect Effects of Factors on each Other

What was obtained from comparing the results of the ranking of the variables based on the analysis of their direct effects and the analysis of their indirect effects showed that the shift in the rank of the variables was not noticeable. Therefore, in identifying the most influential factors, ranking the factors based on direct and indirect effects did not differ much.

The direct and indirect effects of the factors were investigated and compared to identify the most influential and impressionable factors. The ranking results of influenceable and impressionable variables based on the direct impact of the factors on each other and their indirect effects are presented in Table 6.

Examining and comparing variables' direct and indirect effects in explaining influencing and impressionable variables shows that the ranking of influencing variables based on direct and indirect impact is almost similar. The results show that for more effective variables, the ranking of the mentioned indicators based on the direct effects has been repeated with a slight change in the ranking of indirect effects.

(Fig. 3) corresponds to the matrix form of the research and is set based on the indirect effects of factors on each other, where 27 factors are placed; these are the number of factors that affected at least one other factor, and eight factors that were only effective based on indirect effects are not shown in the influence figure.

3.1.4. Selection of Critical Factors Affecting Poverty

Considering the system investigated in this research was relatively stable, the most influential variables were examined to extract the key factors affecting poverty. According to the ranking and the nature of the variables and, finally, based on the opinion of experts, the number of 11 variables was selected and used to create scenarios for the next step. As Table 7 shows, based on the results of this analysis, the top 11 influencing variables based on direct effects were almost the same as the top 11 influencing variables based on indirect effects.

3.1.5. Determining Possible Situations for each of the Critical Factors

Based on experts' opinions, possible situations were considered for each key factor, presented in the table below. Table 8 presents the possible situations of 11 factors influencing poverty in Iran 2043.

3.1.6. Scenario Basket

Many scenarios were created by combining different states of the final vital factors and their possible states

Table 6.

Ranking Variables Based on Direct Effects						Ranking Variables Based on Indirect Effects
Impact rating	Variable	The Degree of Influence	Influence Rating	Variable	The Degree of Influence	Impact Rating	Variable	The Degree of Influence	Impressionability Rating	Variable	The Degree of Influence
1	Mismanagement	549	1	Back-breaking cost of health	678	1	Mismanagement	559	1	Back-breaking cost of health	732
2	Sanction	502	2	Lack of economic growth and development	631	2	Sanction	527	2	Lack of economic growth and development	601
3	Conflict and war	479	3	Improper hygiene	561	3	Conflict and war	500	3	Illness and lack of health	555
4	Low level or lack of education	421	4	Illness and lack of health	561	4	Low level or lack of education	447	4	Unequal distribution of resources	554
5	Accidents and natural disasters	409	5	Unequal distribution of resources	549	5	Accidents and natural disasters	399	5	Improper hygiene	552
6	Lack of job and income	385	6	Lack of job and income	514	6	Financial corruption	379	6	Lack or low level of work motivation	480
7	financial corruption	385	7	Poor public services	444	7	Lack of job and income	378	7	Lack of job and income	480
8	Lack of economic growth and development	374	8	Lack or low level of work motivation	409	8	Lack of government support	358	8	Possession of limited capital assets	447
9	Unequal distribution of material resources	350	9	Possession of limited capital assets	385	9	Unequal distribution of material resources	357	9	financial corruption	406
10	Population growth	350	10	Sanction	385	10	Lack of economic growth and development	346	10	Instability	406
11	Lack of government support	350	11	Instability	385	11	Population growth	345	11	Individual factors	377
12	Lack of employment policy	339	12	Unhealthy lifestyle	374	12	Lack of employment policy	328	12	Low level or lack of education	365
13	Sanction	327	13	Lack of coverage of the social security and support system	374	13	Lack of proper planning of service provision and product production	325	13	Unhealthy lifestyle	357
14	Lack of proper planning of service provision and product production	327	14	financial corruption	374	14	Political, economic, and social instability	317	14	Poor public services	356
15	Political, economic, and social instability	304	15	village life	327	15	Inflation	309	15	Living in deprived and underprivileged areas	355
16	Improper hygiene	292	16	Living in deprived and disadvantaged areas	292	16	Improper hygiene	295	16	village life	347
17	Illness and lack of health	280	17	Individual factors	280	17	Disease and lack of health	276	17	Inflation	346
18	Living in deprived and underprivileged areas	280	18	Weak healthcare system	280	18	Dependency burden	266	18	Lack of coverage of the social security and support system	334
19	village life	257	19	Low level or lack of education	257	19	Living in deprived and underprivileged areas	255	19	Weak healthcare system	205
20	Dependency burden	257	20	Lack of independence and dependence on countries	222	20	Lack of coverage of the social security and support system	250	20	Lack of autonomy and dependence on countries	203
21	Lack of coverage of the social security and support system	257	21	Dependency burden	175	21	village life	248	21	Dependency burden	169
22	age increasing	245	22	Lack of national reserves	175	22	Lack of national reserves	239	22	Size (dimension) of the household	159
23	Lack of national reserves	233	23	Lack of proper planning of service provision and product production	163	23	Lack of independence and dependence on countries	216	23	Lack of appropriate planning of service provision and product production	158
24	Weak healthcare system	210	24	Lack of employment policy	163	24	Weak healthcare system	214	24	Lack of government support	145
25	Failure to use the young and productive force of society	210	25	Lack of government support	163	25	age increasing	214	25	Lack of employment policy	138
26	Unhealthy lifestyle	198	26	Size (dimension) of the household	152	26	Failure to use the young and productive force of society	203	26	Age increasing	133
27	Size (dimension) of the household	187	27	Failure to use the young and productive force of society	152	27	Unhealthy lifestyle	193	27	Failure to use the young and productive force of society	126
28	Possession of capital assets and limited material capital	187	28	age increasing	116	28	Geographical and environmental barriers	189	28	Lack of national reserves	108
29	Geographical and environmental barriers	187	29	Geographical and environmental barriers	93	29	Size (dimension) of the household	187	29	Gender (female) head of the household	92
30	Lack of independence and dependence on countries	175	30	Mismanagement	93	30	Possession of capital assets and limited material capital	185	30	Geographical and environmental barriers	90
31	Gender (female) head of the household	163	31	Gender (female) head of the household	81	31	Back-breaking health costs	168	31	Conflict and war	70
32	Back-breaking health costs	152	32	Conflict and war	81	32	Gender (female) head of the household	157	32	Mismanagement	63
33	Individual factors	140	33	Population growth	46	33	Individual factors	135	33	Population growth	62
34	Lack or low level of work motivation	128	34	Accidents and natural disasters	35	34	Lack or low level of work motivation	130	34	Accidents and natural disasters	21
35	Poor public services and inadequate infrastructure	93	35	Sanction	11	35	Poor public services and inadequate infrastructure	91	35	Sanction	15

using the analysis of balanced mutual effects. From 177,147 created scenarios (multiplying the possible states of the factors in this research, which were made based on statistical calculations), many do not occur because they contradict the network of influencing relationships developed by research experts.

Therefore, compatible scenarios, i.e., scenarios that have not violated the network of direct and indirect influence relationships of factors and their possible situations that experts considered, were extracted using the Scenario Wizard software; in this way, six compatible scenarios were extracted in this research.

Table 7.

Ranking Variables Based on Direct Effects		Ranking Variables Based on Indirect Effects
Impact Rating	Variable	Impact Rating	Variable
1	Mismanagement	1	Mismanagement
2	Sanction	2	Sanction
3	Conflict and war	3	Conflict and war
4	Low level or lack of education	4	Low level or lack of education
5	Accidents and natural disasters	5	Accidents and natural disasters
6	Lack of job and income	6	financial corruption
7	financial corruption	7	Lack of job and income
8	Lack of economic growth and development	8	Lack of government support
9	Unequal distribution of material resources	9	Unequal distribution of material resources
10	Population growth (no plan)	10	Lack of economic growth and development
11	Lack of government support	11	Population growth (no plan)

Table 8.

Row	A Key Factor Affecting Poverty	Code	The Possible Situation for Iran Until 2043 (next 20 years)	Intended Impact on Poverty
1	Mismanagement and inefficiency of managers and policymakers	a1	Improvement relative to the current situation	Optimal
		a2	Continuing the current trend	Maintain the status quo
		a3	Regression (degradation) compared to the current situation	Undesirable
2	Sanction	b1	Increase relative to the current situation	Undesirable
		b2	Continuing the current trend	Maintain the status quo
		b3	The reduction compared to the current situation	Optimal
3	Conflict and war	c1	An increase compared to the current situation	Undesirable
		c2	Similar to the current situation	Maintain the status quo
		c3	The reduction compared to the current situation	Optimal
4	Low level or lack of education	d1	An increase compared to the current situation	Undesirable
		d2	Similar to the current situation	Maintain the status quo
		d3	The reduction compared to the current situation	Optimal
5	Accidents and natural disasters	e1	An increase compared to the current situation
		e2	Similar to the current situation	Undesirable
		e3	The reduction compared to the current situation	Maintain the status quo
6	Lack of job and income	f1	An increase compared to the current situation	Optimal
		f2	Similar to the current situation	Undesirable
		f3	The reduction compared to the current situation	Maintain the status quo
7	financial corruption	g1	An increase compared to the current situation	Optimal
		g2	Similar to the current situation	Undesirable
		g3	The reduction compared to the current situation	Maintain the status quo
8	Lack of economic growth and development	h1	An increase compared to the current situation	Optimal
		h2	Similar to the current situation	Undesirable
		h3	The reduction compared to the current situation	Maintain the status quo
9	Unequal distribution of material resources and wealth	o1	An increase compared to the current situation	Optimal
		o2	Similar to the current situation	Undesirable
		o3	The reduction compared to the current situation	Maintain the status quo
10	Population growth (no plan)	i1	Increase relative to the current situation.
		i2	Similar to the current situation	Optimal
		i3	The reduction compared to the current situation
11	Lack of support from the government and supporting institutions	j1	An increase compared to the current situation	Undesirable
		j2	Similar to the current situation	Maintain the status quo
		j3	The reduction compared to the current situation	Optimal

Tables 9 and 10 show the possible states of each factor separately for each scenario, called the scenario board. To facilitate the understanding of the conditions of the scenario board and the weight of the favorable and unfavorable conditions of this page based on the status of factors with the favorable color green, maintaining the status quo: yellow and unfavorable: red is also provided.

4. DISCUSSION

This study was conducted with the aim of future studies on the factors affecting economic poverty in Iran in 2043. Based on the findings of this research, six scenarios were identified as compatible scenarios, which were generally placed in three groups:

Scenarios of the first group: scenarios with unfavorable trends and facing factors that aggravate and cause poverty

Scenarios of the second group: scenarios with a calm nature and maintenance of the status quo along with aggravation of mismanagement and lack of support from the government and supporting institutions

Scenarios of the third group: scenarios with a favorable trend along with the current state of sanctions

Scenarios of the first group: scenarios with an unfavorable trend and facing factors that aggravate and underpin poverty

Based on the findings of the research, the first and second scenarios are the scenarios that show the unfavorable trend and the exposure to factors that aggravate and create poverty in Iran 2043 and the possibility of an increase in poverty cases. In these scenarios, witness the escalation of mismanagement, sanctions, conflict and war, low level or lack of education, accidents, and natural disasters, lack of jobs and sources of income, financial corruption, lack of economic growth and development, and lack of support from the government and supporting institutions along with the current situation, we have an uneven distribution of material resources and unplanned population growth.

Mismanagement is related to the aggravation of the risk of poverty. In this regard, Ahmad et al. [90], Mishi et al. [91], Siddiqui [92], Ugoani [93], and Obadan [94] each in their studies have pointed out the role of mismanagement in the occurrence of poverty and its aggravation. It seems that undertaking economic activities at the micro and macro level by inefficient and inexperienced managers will result in the waste of resources. Mismanagement due to the inability to plan accurately, properly monitor and evaluate, properly prioritize, and implement programs can lead to poverty and lead society to poverty [95]. In this context, many Asian countries have enormous resources, but mismanagement has prevented the eradication of poverty in these countries because mismanagement is considered a waste of resources [96]. In this regard, one of the causes of mismanagement, especially in developing countries, can be the result of not being aware of the importance of management science and the selection and appointment of unprofessional and inappropriate people in management positions [97].

Therefore, in this management space, what we will witness as management is a set of methods based on accident, trial and error, and arbitrary actions that have no theoretical or professional support. The direction of moving from this situation to the ideal situation is to use elite people and meritocracy [98]. Meritism means that people with the most expertise, knowledge, and interest in serving in the organizational and collective environment are appointed to management positions [98]. Also, regular assessment and monitoring of managers' professional performance and training and keeping them updated are other factors that can help reduce and prevent mismanagement [99].

Sanctions were identified as another important factor in the occurrence of poverty, which, according to the scenarios of the first group in Iran 2043, will be unfavorable. Sanctions are one of the most important causes of poverty in the current era and have a special place. In line with this research, the results of Nademi and Hassanvand's study investigating the severity of sanctions and poverty in Iran showed that absolute poverty has increased in Iran with the increase in the degree of economic sanctions [100].

Fadaee and Derakhshan's study on the impact of the severity of sanctions over time on Iran's economic growth indicates that the application of medium and strong sanctions in the short term has harmed economic growth with coefficients of 0.0098 and 0.43, respectively. Also, the long-term relationship has shown that the application of moderate economic sanctions in the long term harmed economic growth with a coefficient of 0.024 [101]. The research of Marzban and Ostadzad also showed that when oil sanctions are applied in Iran, their effect on social welfare becomes more noticeable. Suppose a combination of sanctions on the sale of oil and consumer, intermediate, and capital goods is applied. In that case, the effect of the sanctions will be much more comprehensive than in the previous case [102].

Choi and Luo's study also argued that sanctions effectively spread poverty in target countries. They showed that the impact of US economic sanctions on target countries, such as fuel embargoes, asset freezes, trade restrictions, or sanctions on most financial activities, has increased the poverty gap between 6.1 and 7.4 percent [80].

Neuenkirch and Neumeier, in their research on the effects of sanctions imposed by the United Kingdom and the United States on 68 countries between 1976-2002, showed that the imposition of British sanctions led to a decrease in real per capita GDP growth between 2.3 and 3.5 percent in the target countries. Also, in the last ten years of these sanctions, British economic sanctions have reduced economic growth by more than 5%. On the other hand, US sanctions during the seven years have reduced the growth of the target countries' GDP between 0.5 and 0.9 [81].

It seems that sanctions can cause a shortage of one or more goods or a wide range. However, in this situation, sanctioned countries such as Iran will try to replace the import of goods from other countries to overcome the obstacle of sanctions. Still, this issue may cause a shortage of goods and increase their prices.

Therefore, economic sanctions lead to a decrease in the supply of essential goods in the livelihood of people in the society, and the increase in prices, especially the cost of essential goods, can aggravate the rise in poverty in sanctioned countries, including Iran.

Conflict and war are other factors affecting poverty, which, according to the scenarios of the first group in Iran in 2043, had an unfavorable situation. The findings of Nademi and Hasanvand's study have shown that the war has had a positive and significant impact on poverty due to the conditions of war and the destruction of facilities, infrastructures, structures, and the allocation of resources to finance the war. This effect will have significant or catastrophic dimensions [100].

According to studies, wars, violence, and national or regional unrest disrupt society and create more poverty in affected areas [103, 104]. Also, war and political changes affect security, stability, livelihood, prosperity, and economic growth [105].

Wars such as imposed war are not only associated with the destruction of technical and physical infrastructure, factory production capacities, and farms, but all members of the society, especially people with low incomes, suffer a lot from war. During the imposed war in Iran, the government borrowed the reserves of the social security organizations and proceeded to repay it with a long delay and without taking into account the interest, and took steps to weaken the financial situation of the social security organization [106].

Also, population policies imposed during the war increased the burden of living for low-income families and decreased their per capita income. At the same time, government spending on health services and subsidies also increased, and finally, with a two-decade delay, the young population entered the labor market. The labor supply increased when there were no job opportunities, and as a result, the unemployment rate among the youth also increased. As a result of this situation, fewer savings were formed in the public and private sectors, less investment, and lower economic growth [106].

Another factor that can cause poverty, and according to the scenarios of the first group, which has an unfavorable situation in Iran in 2043 compared to the present, is the low level or lack of education. Becker and Schultz believe education and training will reduce poverty by increasing human capital. It seems that the increase of human capital means the increase of knowledge, skills, expertise, and training of people in two-income and non-income ways, that is, on the one hand, by increasing the level of income due to the improvement of education, and on the other hand, through how to make appropriate and optimal decisions in consumption resulting from income and efficient and effective production decision-making, resulting from increasing the level of knowledge and awareness, will be effective in reducing poverty [107].

The level of access people have to income is related to their level of education and physical health, and the difference in the level of income is associated with the difference in the level of education and physical health [107]. Mincer also described the revenue function in which income distribution depends on individual differences in education and training [108].

Mohammadzadeh et al., in their study on poverty and its determinants, showed that improving education is one of the most essential factors in reducing household poverty and contributes 24.2% to lowering the probability of household poverty [109]. Poorly educated people have limited opportunities to succeed in a dynamic work environment. It seems that the increase of human capital in the form of the level of education, especially of the heads of households in deprived areas, can help to obtain a source of income and employment and, as a result, reduce poverty through the expansion of formal and informal education and the development of technical and professional skills and capabilities.

Accidents and incidents are another factor affecting poverty, which, according to the scenarios of the first group in Iran 2043, is unfavorable. Junior et al. [110], Jia et al. [111], and Sawada and Takasaki [112] have each pointed out in their studies that accidents and disasters (natural or unnatural) have been one of the factors affecting the occurrence of poverty disasters.

Lack of jobs and sources of income are other essential factors in poverty, and they play an important role in this field. Based on the findings of the present study and the scenarios of the first group, this factor of poverty will also have an unfavorable situation in Iran in 2043. The occurrence and aggravation of poverty due to a lack of job and/or source of income are also mentioned in the studies of O'Campo et al. [113], Probosiwi [114], Hassan, et al. [115], Muhammad and David [116] and Quy [117]. Employment and having a certain Shariah-compliant and accepted job is considered the most important source of income for groups and households. Therefore, people who do not have a job and a specific source of income and are so-called unemployed will be deprived of the necessary income to meet their basic needs. On the other hand, the limitation of markets and the expansion of economic records will be a reason for the aggravation of unemployment and the increase in the intensity and volume of poverty in society. Also, the lower the participation of the active labor force in economic activities, the more the level and intensity of poverty in the society will increase.

Financial corruption is one of the other factors affecting poverty, which, in the scenario of the first group, will be an unfavorable situation in the future of Iran in 2043. The findings of Mehrgan and Mohseni's study showed that poverty and corruption go hand in hand and in the same direction. In other words, the causal relationship between them is two-way [118]. The correlation between poverty and corruption has also been confirmed in the studies of Husted [119], Gupta [120], Besong [121], and Jong and Khagram [122]. In a study, Dincer and Gunalp investigated the effect of corruption on income inequality and poverty in the United States. Their research findings indicated that increased corruption will lead to a rise in inequality and poverty [123]. It seems that corruption affects poverty by affecting economic growth factors. This means that corruption has prevented the market from becoming competitive by reducing economic investment and distorting the market, and this issue brings the economy's inefficiency. In this way, economic activity costs increase, and income inequality expands. On the other hand, corruption can lead to the inability to encourage domestic and foreign investments, diverting public funds for personal purposes and rentier activities [87].

Such activities operate informally and do not pay taxes, thus reducing tax revenue [87]. Finally, it should be mentioned that corruption will lead talents from productive activities to non-productive activities. As a result of all these complications, corruption will be the basis for the emergence and aggravation of poverty [88]. On the other hand, it can be said that corruption affects poverty by affecting government agents. Poor governance, corruption, and inadequate infrastructure deprive governments of opportunities, wealth, and resources and deprive access to essential goods and services. For example, corruption destroys government institutional funds meant to provide quality public services, diverting public funds from basic and public needs to capital projects (which are more corruptible) and increasing government budget pressures [89].

Among the other factors that, according to the scenarios of the first group in Iran 2043, have an unfavorable situation is the lack of economic and social growth and development. During recent studies, it has been reported that the benefits of economic growth reduce absolute poverty in such a way that the growth of average incomes benefits poor people. On the contrary, a country's lack of economic growth and development can cause poverty and its aggravation [124-127]. The results of Nadami and Hassanvand's study showed that the economic growth rate had a negative and significant effect on poverty, which means that the economic growth rate is associated with job opportunities for people in society. As a result, with the rise in employment, the percentage of poor people decreases [100].

Finally, the lack of support from the government and supporting institutions is one of the factors affecting poverty, which, according to the scenarios of the first group, will be an unfavorable situation in Iran in 2043. Ochilov and Najibullah's study has mentioned the critical role of governments and their support program in reducing societal poverty [128]. Governments can be essential in increasing income, reducing and eliminating poverty. The importance of this role depends on the economic system governing the society, without sufficient support from governments, especially when people need to obtain the basic needs of life or improve education. Their career prospects are struggling. Poverty is an imaginable phenomenon. In this regard and the direction of poverty reduction and poverty alleviation, the government's support in the form of rural development through the creation of construction Jihad, the construction of rural roads, the provision of health and educational services, the provision of essential goods needed by the people in the city and the rural areas at a subsidized price, covering people under the supervision of supporting organizations and institutions, it is recommended to establish housing cooperatives and offer low-interest loans, expand social insurance coverage, and expand free educational and health services in cities and villages.

Scenarios of the second group: scenarios with a calm nature and maintaining the status quo along with the aggravation of mismanagement and lack of support from the government and supporting institutions

The second category of scenarios includes scenarios in which the status of most of the factors and variables that make it up will proceed according to the existing conditions, and there is no possibility of an unfavorable situation occurring in the next 20 years, i.e., in Iran 2043, for some factors. The second and third scenarios are included in this category. The typical features of the scenarios of this group are given in Table 11

The third and fourth scenarios indicate a situation similar to the current conditions for sanction, conflict, and war, low level or lack of education, lack of jobs and source of income, financial corruption, and unequal distribution of material resources. However, in the third scenario from the second group of scenarios, mismanagement and lack of support from the government and supporting institutions in Iran 2043 will go unfavorably.

Scenarios of the third group: scenarios with a favorable trend along with the current state of sanctions

The third category of scenarios includes the fifth and sixth scenarios. In these two scenarios, the common factors similar to the current situation include sanctions, lack of jobs and sources of income, financial corruption, and lack of economic growth and development. The typical features of the scenarios in this category are presented in Table 12.

The factor that has not seen a favorable situation in all scenarios and, finally, in the scenarios of this group (the third group), which has a situation similar to the current trend, is sanctions. As explained earlier, economic sanctions against Iran have a long history. Of course, their intensity has been different over the years. As mentioned in the scenarios of the first group, sanctions have a positive and significant effect on poverty. In other words, with the increase in the degree of economic sanctions against Iran's economy, poverty in the country increases.

Therefore, according to the research findings and considering the impact of sanctions on the increase in poverty in the country, adopting urgent measures of international and human rights forums to cancel severe oily, financial, commercial, and banking sanctions against Iran is a vital issue.

CONCLUSION

Based on the findings of the study and emphasizing the scenarios of the first group with a high probability of occurrence, nine factors (mismanagement, sanctions, conflict and war, low level or lack of education, accidents and natural disasters, lack of jobs and sources of income, financial corruption, lack of economic growth and development and lack of support from the government and supporting institutions), from the 11 final factors affecting poverty in Iran 2043 will have an unfavorable situation. Therefore, it is recommended to plan poverty alleviation and policy to cover the existing deficiencies by focusing on these nine factors.

In this regard, employing knowledgeable and experienced managers in sensitive positions, empowering managers by holding relevant workshops and training courses, striving to lift sanctions through international negotiations, avoiding any internal and external tensions and wars, improving the level of literacy in society, preparing for and improving the state of infrastructure to deal with natural disasters and accidents, creating jobs at the micro and macro levels, especially for the young workforce, and comprehensively combating financial corruption in all organizations and administrations are recommended.

REFERENCES