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Covid-19 Mortality Rates in Northamptonshire UK: Initial Sub-regional Comparisons and Provisional SEIR model of First Wave Disease Spread



Nick Petford1, *, Jackie Campbell1
1 Faculty of Health, Education and Society, University of Northampton, NN1 5PH, UK


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Creative Commons License
© 2021 Petford & Campbell

open-access license: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0), a copy of which is available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode. This license permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

* Address correspondence to this author at Faculty of Health, Education and Society, University of Northampton, Northampton NN1 5PH, UK; E-mail: nick.petford@northampton.ac.uk


Abstract

We analysed mortality rates in a non-metropolitan UK subregion (Northamptonshire) using statistically-weighted data fitted to the start of the epidemic to quantify SARS-CoV-2 disease fatalities at sub 1,000,000 population levels. Using parameter estimates derived from the recorded mortality data, a numerical (SEIR) model was developed to predict the spread of Covid-19 sub regionally. Model outputs, including analysis of transmission rates and the basic reproduction number, suggest national lockdown flattened the curve and reduced potential deaths by up to 4000 locally. The modelled number of infected and recovered individuals is higher than official estimates, and a revised form of the theoretical critical population fraction requiring immunisation is derived. Combining published (sub-regional) mortality rate data with deterministic models on disease spread has the potential to help public health practitioners refine bespoke mitigation plans guided by local population demographics.

Keywords: Covid-19, Mortality rates, Northamptonshire, SEIR models, Public health, Lockdown.