Covid-19 Mortality Rates in Northamptonshire UK: Initial Sub-regional Comparisons and Provisional SEIR model of First Wave Disease Spread
Nick Petford1, *, Jackie Campbell1
Identifiers and Pagination:Year: 2021
First Page: 218
Last Page: 224
Publisher Id: TOPHJ-14-218
Article History:Received Date: 6/8/2020
Revision Received Date: 15/2/2021
Acceptance Date: 9/3/2021
Electronic publication date: 24/05/2021
Collection year: 2021
open-access license: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0), a copy of which is available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode. This license permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
We analysed mortality rates in a non-metropolitan UK subregion (Northamptonshire) using statistically-weighted data fitted to the start of the epidemic to quantify SARS-CoV-2 disease fatalities at sub 1,000,000 population levels. Using parameter estimates derived from the recorded mortality data, a numerical (SEIR) model was developed to predict the spread of Covid-19 sub regionally. Model outputs, including analysis of transmission rates and the basic reproduction number, suggest national lockdown flattened the curve and reduced potential deaths by up to 4000 locally. The modelled number of infected and recovered individuals is higher than official estimates, and a revised form of the theoretical critical population fraction requiring immunisation is derived. Combining published (sub-regional) mortality rate data with deterministic models on disease spread has the potential to help public health practitioners refine bespoke mitigation plans guided by local population demographics.