Compared to neighbouring countries, Malawi always has a high rate of fertility. In a traditional Malawian society, children are a sign of status and wealth [1], and children are seen as a source of cheap labour and old age security [1, 2]. In most cases, childbearing takes place within the institution of marriage. In Malawi, marriage can be described as early and universal [3, 4]. It is regarded as a disgrace for a grown-up man or woman to be single and childless. These views on marriage and childbearing are reinforced by the strong kinship networks and prevailing high economic and social values of children in most African cultures [5].

By 2010, almost all parts of the world experienced a fertility decline [6, 7]. With the exception of South Africa, reports on the decline in fertility rate in sub-Saharan Africa first emerged in the 1990s [8]. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Malawi increased from 6.5 in the 1960s to 7.6 in the 1970s and declined to 7.4 in 1987 [9-12]. Subsequent population censuses indicated a further decline to 6.5 in 1998, 5.2 in 2008, and 4.2 in 2018 [13-15]. Data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) indicated a decline from 6.7 in 1992 to 6.4 in 2000, 6.0 in 2004, 5.7 in 2010, and 4.6 in 2015-16 [16-20]. These estimates suggested that fertility declined by 4.5% between 1992 and 2000, 6.3% between 2000 and 2004, 5.0% between 2004 and 2010, and 22.8% between 2010 and 2015-16. This is not a small achievement considering that the Malawi Government (MG) officially embarked on fertility reduction targets in 1994 with the adoption of both population policy and family planning (FP) [21].

The high level of fertility and slow-declining TFR, together with a reduction in mortality rate, leads to rapid population growth [22, 23]. A number of studies in developing countries have indicated that rapid population growth is one of the factors attributing to social, economic and demographic challenges experienced in these countries [23]. These negative consequences of rapid population growth led several countries to develop population policies aimed at bringing population growth in line with social and economic development.

The first national population policy for Malawi was developed in the early 1990s and approved in 1994 for the period 1994-2002 with the aim of reducing population growth to manageable levels [21]. This policy was revised in the early 2000s [24]. The main objective of the population policies [21, 24] is “to have manageable population growth, structure, and distribution that are commensurate with the country’s resources for sustainable development”. This objective is in line with Malawi’s Vision 2020 [22], which states that “the strategic challenge to population growth is reducing the rate of population growth (reducing the TFR as well as the high mortality rate), and raising the literacy and economic status of women”. The status of social and economic indicators in Malawi remains poor even though the levels are improving. For instance, in 2014, Malawi ranked 174 out of 188 countries with the Human Development Index of 0.445 [25]. However, despite this poor indicator of social and economic status, the TFR in Malawi still decreased by about 22.8% between 2010 and 2015-16 [19, 20].

Understanding the nature and patterns of fertility in different areas has been one of the recurring areas of demographic research [2, 26-28]. The high prevalence of contraceptive use, persistent high TFR, and slow decline in fertility have been a source of concern among researchers and policymakers [27]. This study aims to explore the determinants of fertility, specifically among married women in Malawi, during a period of a significant decrease in TFR.

The study found that currently married Malawian women of reproductive age had a mean number of children ever born of 3.74 in 2010 and 3.44 in 2015. The mean number of children born among women aged 45-49 years was 7.42 and 6.41 in 2010 and 2015, respectively. Two aspects are important about the values of a mean number of children ever born. Firstly, the level of lifetime fertility is still high. Secondly, there is some evidence of a decline in the TFR. The continued high fertility suggests the need to strengthen the existing reproductive health programmes, especially the FP programme, which would help to reduce the TFR.

The result of the study indicated that the major factors influencing fertility in Malawi are the women's age, age at marriage, the ideal number of children, place of residence, education, wealth status, use of FP methods, gender of HH, and child death experienced by mothers.

In line with findings from other studies [29, 41-43], our study found that the number of children ever born is positively related to the age of women. This is expected given that older women have spent more time in childbearing age groups. In addition, older women are more likely to be conservative and traditional to prefer having more children and not adopting any practices to prevent childbearing.

The study also found a negative association between age at marriage and the number of children ever born. This finding is consistent with results from other studies [40, 41]. Marrying early entails that women spend more years in childbearing activities, and if they are not practicing contraception, it will likely lead to high fertility. Moreover, early age at first marriage means early entry into sexual unions and increased exposure to the risk of childbearing, especially in societies that regard the primary function of marriage as procreation. Those who marry early are likely to drop out of school and be unemployed; factors that are associated with high fertility. In addition, women who marry early are likely to get married to older men and consequently be in unequal relationships, resulting in situations where they cannot negotiate contraceptive use [33].

The study also found a positive relationship between the number of children ever born and an ideal number of children. Women who prefer many children are likely to give birth to many children. This finding is consistent with results from other studies [44]. This finding may be due to the fact that women would like to justify the number of children she already has. This phenomenon is described in the literature as rationalization bias [45]. Furthermore, it has been acknowledged that fertility preference is one of the hindrances to the TFR decline in Africa. It influences whether women use contraceptives and their desire to stop childbearing [33, 45, 46].

Another factor associated with high fertility in Malawi is the type of residence. The present study reported that fertility is higher among rural women than urban women. This finding agrees with an earlier study conducted in Malawi [47] and is similar to results from other studies [31, 43, 44]. There are several reasons that could explain rural-urban differences in fertility. The characteristics of urbanites lead to lower fertility. Urban dwellers tend to be more educated than rural dwellers, with better access to information and services on FP.

A negative association was reported between marital fertility and the level of education. Numerous studies have documented that education is a predictor of fertility [28, 42-44]. Educated women are likely to marry late, postpone marriage, use contraception, work outside the home, and have few numbers of children. This is the case because education exposes women to information, empowers them and makes them aware of the consequences of having large families. Other researchers have also demonstrated that education empowers women to reach their fertility targets [48].

A negative relationship was also reported between wealth status and the number of children ever born. This result is the same as for other studies [28, 41, 43]. This finding is consistent with the belief that among poor people, children are seen as an investment, a source of household labour and serves as old-age security [45]. In addition, women from rich households have access to education and are likely to spend more time in school, reducing the amount of time they spend in childbearing. In addition, women from rich households are knowledgeable about contraceptives and have the resources to get them [49].

Moreover, marital fertility was found to be positively associated with contraceptives. This finding is in line with other studies [28, 32, 39]. The finding that the number of children ever born was higher among women who had ever used contraception than those who did not use contraception could arise from the observation that women might consider stopping childbearing and start using contraception when they have reached or exceeded the desired number of children.

The study also found that marital fertility was higher among male HHs than female HHs. This is similar to finding from other studies [32, 44]. One possible explanation for this could be that in a patriarchal society, husbands' desires exert more pressure on women to have more children. Another possibility is that women in the female HHs have high social status. The women’s high status would place them in a good position to negotiate for contraceptive use and less number of children, among other things. Studies have shown that contraceptive use is positively related to women's high social status [49]. High contraceptive use among women in female HHs could, in turn, lead to longer birth intervals and a lower rate of fertility.

Another finding of the study was that marital fertility was negatively influenced by the number of children who died. In other words, marital fertility was reported to be high among women who have experienced child death. Similar findings have been reported in other studies [30, 44, 50]. One possible explanation is the notion of “insurance” fertility, whereby parents bear more children than they ideally want to ensure that they have some children in case some will not survive. In addition, such an association could be explained in terms of the child replacement hypothesis in that the death of a child leads most couples to have another birth to replace the deceased child. One consequence of this finding is that in countries like Malawi, where infant and child mortality are still high, measures that ensure child survival would accelerate the decline in the fertility rate [51].

There are some limitations in this study. Firstly, the cross-sectional nature of the data used in the study implies that the associations between the variables may not necessarily be a cause-effect relationship. Secondly, determining the number of CEB is influenced by problems of omission, truncation and censoring as it includes the number of children born up to specific points in women's childbearing years. Thirdly, all the variables are subjected to sampling and content errors that could exist in collecting information. Lastly, the inclusion of proximate determinants, such as age at marriage and contraceptive use, is considered to have a direct impact on fertility and may reduce the influence of other social factors.

Although the TFR in Malawi is declining, the rate is still high in comparison to other sub-Saharan countries. The study demonstrated that fertility in Malawi is significantly related to the age of the mother, the age at first marriage, the age at birth of the first child, the ideal number of children, education, wealth status, current use of FP and experience of the death of a child. The significant factors influencing fertility in Malawi have implications for policy and programme for the country. Firstly, there is a need to continue educating the masses about the negative effects of early sex, early marriage and early childrearing. Secondly, strengthening women empowerment programs (through initiatives, such as literacy/education strategies and income generating programmes) is critical to not only improve sexual and reproductive health but also lead to fertility decline. Lastly, programmes that focus on improving infant and child survival could also help to reduce the fertility rate.