Regional and Temporal Trends in the Prevalence of Musculoskeletal Disorders in the Iranian Elderly Population: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study from 1990 to 2019

This study aimed to estimate temporal and regional trends in musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) prevalence among the Iranian elderly population.

An ecological analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) dataset was conducted to examine the prevalence of MSDs among individuals aged 60–89 years. Joinpoint regression identified temporal changes, and ArcGIS mapped provincial prevalence in 2019.

The trend analysis from 1990 to 2019 demonstrated the six-year period in which the highest annual percent change for prevalence of MSDs was reported in males (1990 to 1996: 0.392; [95% UI:0.376, 0.413]), females (1996-1999:1.512; [95% UI:1.423, 1.597]), and both sexes (1996-1999: 0.814; [95% UI: 0.755, 0.858]) of the whole population. Also, the regional analysis showed that the highest average annual percent change for prevalence of MSDs was in males (0.322; [95% UI: 0.301, 0.343]), in females (0.333; [95% UI: 0.320, 0.346]), and both sexes (0.341; [95% UI: 0.331, 0.352]) in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province. Finally, the highest prevalence of MSDs in 2019 was found in males (46377 to 51228 per 100,000), females (54342 to 62845 per 100,000), and both sexes (50410 to 54966 per 100,000) in Ardabil, Alborz, Tehran, and South Khorasan Provinces, respectively.

The observed rise in the prevalence of MSDs reflects Iran’s population aging and potential lifestyle factors. Significant geographic disparities highlight the need for region-specific public health strategies.

This study reveals an upward trend in MSDs among Iran’s elderly. These findings necessitate evidence-based aging policies and targeted interventions for high-burden regions to address systemic health challenges.